“If you can’t think of a thing to be worried about, worry about being overconfident.” –Bobby Knight I’m not a big fan of Coach Knight but I admire this quote from his new book, The Power of Negative Thinking. If you’re interested in some methods for protecting yourself from over-confidence, I encouraged you to read…

Nate Silver in his new book, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—But Some Don’t, makes a profound point: Certainty is actually correlated with making worse forecasts. Let me repeat that: Certainty is actually correlated with making worse forecasts. In other words, the more certain you are of your forecast or prediction, the less likely you are to…

There is no doubt the world is awash in information. The positive side is that you can find almost anything you are looking for. The downside is that it can all feel overwhelming at times. The one thing you can ill afford to do is accept that information with complete certainty because what you see…

Developing a healthy dose of unconfidence can be helpful in unlearning. Ironically, one of the things many U.S. students must unlearn is their high level confidence in their math and science scores. Did you know that although U.S. students have some of the lowest scores in math and science, they consistently rank highest in how…