Luckily I don’t have a loved one who suffers from Alzheimer’s. I do, however, have a few friends who aren’t so lucky and I know how devastating the disease can be for both victims and their families.
Still, I cringed when I saw this recent report suggesting that there will be 1 million new Alzheimer’s victims in the year 2050. It is not my intention to minimize the horrible aspects of this disease but reports such as this are simply irresponsible because they merely extrapolate current trends out into the future.
The problem with this approach is that the year 2050 will be nothing like today. No one in their right mind can realistically predict out to the year 2050. This is especially true given the exponential amount of progress being made in a variety of medical and health care-related fields. The converse, though, is not true. History demonstrates that progress in most fields (with the possible exception of the internal combustion engine) is rarely static. Therefore, it is my belief that Alzheimer’s—as well as a host of other age-related diseases and illinesses—will be addressed by the year 2050 (if not much sooner).
Not surprisingly, though, the report was funded by the Alzheimer’s Association which has a vested interested in generating publicity for its cause and, apparently, doesn’t mind scaring the hell out the public in order to generate that attention.
Now, I don’t disagree with the Association’s call for the federal government to invest more in Alzheimer’s research in the short-term, but I am also of the opinion that millions of Baby Boomers will provide innovative pharmaceutical companies and entrepreneurs the financial incentive neccessary to address this issue.
I’m so convinced of the correctness of my position that in the spirit of friendly competition, I’m willing to make a $1000 wager with an official at the Alzheimer’s Association to this affect: In the year 2050 there will be fewer cases of Alzheimer than there are today. (For the record, we can both invest $1000 in an interest bearing account until 2050 and if neither party is still alive at that time the winner’s heir will receive the money.)
P.S. If the $2000 is invested in an account that earns 6% interest, the $2000 will grow to $23,000 by 2050. If the account achieves a 10% rate of return, the total will approach $109,000.)
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Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.
