The signs are all around us and yet, rather surprisingly, there is very little public discussion of an issue that is going to have profound moral, ethical, and political ramifications for all of society.
The issue of which I speak is the possibility of immortality. In just the past few days, however, the New York Times has run an informative article on how advances in genomics are improving the treatment of disease; the Economist has discussed the impressive progress being made in the field of gene therapy, and Technology Review covered the extraordinary advances that researchers at the University of Minnesota are making in growing a human heart.
Last week, I discussed why the future is accelerating and before that, I encouraged readers when thinking about the future to ”think 10X, not 10%”; and the more I think about health care and human longeveity, the more I think both of these lines of thought apply to this field in particular.
I recently came across this article entitled”The man who will help you live for 1,000 years.” It is about Aubrey de Grey’s new book ”Ending Aging.” To most people the idea of living to 1,000 sounds absolutely crazy. But, as I explain in my own new book, Jump the Curve, due to exponential advances in a variety of technologies the ability to do things that sound “impossible” today could very well become quite “doable” tomorrow. (This is just one reason I think we all need to develop a ”future bias.”)
With this brief introduction then let me provide you 10 reasons why you could live to 1,000 years of age.
#1: More powerful computers. Late last year, it was announced that IBM had the world’s most powerful supercomputer. It is capable of 1 quadrillion calculations per second. More impressive, by 2009, IBM expects to have a supercomputer capable of 10 quadrillion calculations per second. Now, computer speed, in and of itself, will not directly lead to longer lives but what these supercomputers are learning about the human body—the brain, protein-folding, pharmacogenomics, etc.—could very well lead to some amazing medical breakthroughs.
#2 Better Drugs. I recently stumbled across this article entitled ”So You Want to Live Forever?” It discusses the progress that Sirtris Pharmaceuticals (which was recently acquired by GlaxoSmithKline) is making in testing a fountain-of-youth pill in humans. The drug may or may not work, but if it doesn’t work there are similar drugs in the FDA pipeline and it is not unrealistic to think that some of those drugs might just someday be successful at extending human life. (And with the first Baby Boomers hitting retirement age in 2008, you can bet that there will be a large market for any drug that keeps the “Woodstock” generation feeling and looking young.)
#3: Implantable Organs. I have written before about the amazing progress being made in the area of implantable organs. Today, bladders and human skin are being grown. Tomorrow, it is possible that kidneys and livers might be grown. And in 10 or 15 years (perhaps sooner given the University of Minnesota’s progress) maybe even the human heart will be able to be artifically manufactured.
#4 Stem Cell Research: In November 2007, researchers announced that they derived a new method for growing stem cells that might sidestep some of the ethical issues hindering current research. If so, advances in stem cell research could progress at faster rate than most people generally appreciate.
#5 Genome sequencing: This past weekend the New York Times ran an article describing how three companies want to make a portion of your genome available to you for less than $1000. This is extraordinary considering that in the mid-1970’s it cost $150 million to sequence a single gene! As the technology continues to improve and we learn more about how genes regulate human health scientists and researchers could easily find ways to lenthen human longeveity.
#6: Robotic surgeries: I written before about the future of health care and I am of the opinion that within the next decade amazing breakthroughs will be made in the field of robotic surgeries. In fact, researchers in South Korea are already experimenting with miniature robots to clear people’s arteries. If effective, heart disease may be a thing of the past. Robotics are also being used for a growing number of other surgeries as I recently explained in this piece.
#7: Nanotechnology: The National Cancer Institute has speculated that due to advances in nanotechnology cancer could be a treatable disease as early as 2015.
#8: Advances in proteinomics and metagenomics. How the human body operates is only imprecisely understood today. As advances in each of the aforementioned fields progresses, however, we will have a much better understanding of the human body and, thus, how to treat it.
#9: Human Desire. I understand perfectly well that a vast majority of people are terribly uncomfortable with the idea of radical life extension. Nevertheless, there are thoughtful and intelligent people such as Aubrey de Grey who are actively challenging society to think differently. Rather than accepting aging as an inevitable aspect of life, they are instead encouraging society to view aging as a disease—something to be treated. This is a profound paradigm shift, but is it any more profound than Copernecius telling people 500 years ago that they were not at the center of the universe? History has a way of demonstrating that future often turns out much different than most people appreciate and that what constitutes “conventional wisdom” in one era is laughed at and mocked by future generations. Our “acceptance” of death might be one such issue.
#10: Evolution. Lastly, I would like to submit the idea that mankind is destine to evolve towards radical life extension. In 1600, the average life expectancy was 36 years. At the beginning of the 17th century, life expectancy had inched forward to 37 years. One hundreds later it had increased to 39 years. At the beginning of the 20th century, it was 47. Only a 100 years, however, it had increased almost 30 years—to 77. What will the next 100 years hold? It is difficult to imagine, but it is important to understand that society will not simply experience a rate of change similar to the last century. Due to the accelerating rate of progress we could very well experience the equilavent of 20,000 years of progress (as measured by the 20th century rate). Within all of this progress, it is possible that we might find the key (or keys) to radical life extension? I believe that the answer is yes.
The real question then becomes: “How do we prepare ourselves and society for this seismic change?”
Related Posts
The Future of Health Care: Part 3 (Robotics)
The Future of Health Care: Part 1
The Future of Health Care: Part 2
The Coming Health Care Revolution
The Robot Will See You Now
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.
