Last fall, the editors at The Futurist have released their top ten forecasts for the future. I don’t agree with everything on the list, but the forecast is thought-provoking and I’d encourage interested readers to give it the once-over because the first prediction is this dozy: “The world will have a billion millionaires by 2025.”
Now, a million dollars in the future won’t hold the same cache as million dollars today due to inflation, but I’d argue that if you want to be a member of the millionaire’s club of 2025 it would behoove you to understand some of today’s trends in technology because they have the potential to either help or hinder your path to future prosperity.
With that short introduction then, I’d like to provide my personal list of top ten technology trends:
#1: Nanotechnology. I have previously expressed my opinion why I believe nanotechnology will represent a $2.6 trillion market in new products and services by 2015, but a quick review of the impressive progress many nanotech companies such as IBM, H-P, Intel, GE, Arrowhead Research and Nucryst are making due to nanotechnology offers compelling evidence that the field is ripe for explosive growth.
#2 Robotics. No less an authority that Bill Gates has indicated that the robotics will be the basis of a $50 billion industry by 2025. Add to this prediction reports that the Defense Department wants to have at least one-third of all military trucks being driven by robots by 2015 and it is clear why companies as diverse as Toyota, Oshkosh Trucks and John Deere are all investing heavily in robotics.
#3 Rapid Prototype Manufacturing. In the coming years, 3D Systems, Stratasys, Z Corporation and Desktop Factory are all hoping to radically lower the price of rapid prototype manufacturing equipment. If they are successful, it is possible that such 3-D printers—which can print out physical objects such as cups, plates and assorted spare parts—could become a household appliance as common as the dishwasher. If you’re interested in reading more about this topic, I’d encourage you to check out this past post entitled: ”3-D Printing: The Shape of Things to Come.” I would also add that researchers at Gartner recently predicted the field would experience a 100-fold increase in the coming years.
#4: Synthetic Biology: Late last year, The Guardian newspaper reported that Craig Venter, the former co-founder of Celera, could be announcing the creation of the first new artificial life form on Earth as early as this year. It is, to be sure, a development fraught with a host of societal and ethical issues, but as BP’s foray into the area suggests, it could also revolutionize the energy industry by allowing for new bacteria to be designed that can cheaply and efficiently convert agricultural products into environmentally-friendly biofuels.
#5 Cleantech: Rising oil prices, increased demand from China, and heightened concerns over global climate change are already driving up demand for renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, and new biofuels. According to Cleantech Ventures Network, wind is expected to triple from $17 billion today to $60 billion in 2016; solar from $15 billion to $70 billion; and biofuels from $20 billion to $80 billion. Companies such as the China-based solar manufacturer, Suntech Power, are well-positioned to benefit from this convergence of macro-economic trends. It is just one of the reason why I think cleantech could be the biggest economic opportunity of the 21st century.
#6 Radio Frequency Identification (RFID). This over-hyped technology was supposed to begin revolutionizing the world back in 2003; but, for a number of reasons, it has been slow to catch on. Last year, however, IBM announced that it would be working to implement RFID technology at Schiphol Airport in Amsterdam with the goal of being able to track 70 million pieces of luggage annually through the airport by 2018. This deal comes on the heels of news that Microsoft is also gearing up to be competitive in the RFID field, and stories of how the technology saved Dole Food’s bacon during a recent E Coli scare.
#7 Personalized Medicine. As impressive as many of today’s health care treatments are, they can still be pretty crude. For instance, many of today’s best known drugs don’t work on a select percentage of the population due to genetic factors. As a result of advances in genome sequencing, however, researchers and doctors are beginning to better understand how individuals will respond to certain drugs. If companies such as Life Science 454 and Illumina succeed in driving the cost of sequencing a person’s genome from today’s cost of $3 million to below $10,000 (which is their stated goal), personalized medicine will dramatically alter the entire healthcare sector.
#8 Algorithms. The world is now awash in data, but there is still a great deal more information that can be extracted from all of this data. To unlock these hidden nuggets, a number of companies such as Best Buy and Blockbuster are applying sophisticated algorithms to do everything from determining the odds that you will make a claim on your warranty to the possibility that you will return your next movie late. These algorithms will only get better with time.
#9 Neurotechnology. The human brain is an unbelievably complex instrument and, in spite of extraordinary progress over the past decade, there is still much we don’t know about it. Researchers are now employing fMRI equipment to study how people’s brains operate as they make complex decisions. What they are finding is that often different parts of the brain are used to make different decisions. As the technology improves improve for major retailer such as McDonald’s to fine tune their advertising messages for maximum impact.
#10 Web 2.0. The term Web 2.0 is by now a well-worn cliche, but there is good reason to believe that as computer chips, sensors and RFID tags continue to get better, smaller and cheaper these devices will be placed inside a variety of household items and throughout the external environment to store, collect and communicate information in new ways. Even more impressive will be how companies such as Google and Nokia will manage all of this information to make our lives easier. As I said in this earlier post, I think the more apt term is ”Web 2.D’Oh.”
As Yogi Berra once said, “The future ain’t what it used to be.” He’s right. Due to the accelerating pace of technological change it is likely that I and others will be blind-sided by technologies that haven’t even been imagined yet. Nevertheless, fear of the unknown is not a sufficient reason for inaction. I’m confident that all of the aforementioned technologies represent legitimate opportunities and if executives and managers hope to be in business tomorrow then they must track the advances occuring in these fields today.
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequenter speaker on future trends, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and associations.
