Earlier today I received an email from a friend with this quote from George Scalise, the president of the Semiconductor Industry Association: ”The typical desktop system of 2007 was at least 100 times more powerful than the typical system of 1997 but cost only about one-third as much—$630 in 2007 compared to $1,833 in 1997.”
It is an excellent example of the power of exponential growth and it offers yet another reason for executives to learn how to “jump the curve.” This is because this trend isn’t going to stop any time soon and as computers continue to grow more powerful and less expensive they will continue to transform a variety of industries.
In fact, Intel announced earlier today that it is introducing a new chip, dubbed Tukwila, which contains more than 2 billion transistors. This is double the 1 billion transistors it squeezed onto a chip just two years ago.
Of course, an even better way to think of this advance is this: By doubling the number of transistors in just two years Intel has effectively doubled the entire amount of progress the company has made since 1971! This is because each subsequent advance of any exponential is equal to all the previous doublings—combined!
More interesting still is the fact that Intel intends to release a 4-billion transistor chip in 2010. If the company continues this progress through 2018 that mean we will have computers another 100 times more powerful than we have today at a cost of about $200. Now, “jump the curve” and try to imagine what will be possible with computers that powerful and that inexpensive.
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.
