Fifty years ago, large mainframe computers, often costing millions of dollars, were the exclusive purview of multinational corporations and the Defense Department. At that time it would have been difficult to imagine that in the not-too-distant future most people would not only have such computers in their home, but they would cost less than a $1000 and be vastly more capable. Of course, as we all know, this is precisely what has come to pass and today we don’t give a great deal of thought to how much this technology has changed the world around us. Nevertheless, those who did have the foresight to see where the technology was headed and invested accordingly, profited handsomely.
Now, what if I told you that there might be a similar change on the horizon, but instead of transforming how society manipulates digital data, this new technology will change how it manipulates physical material. Imagine, for instance, being able to download the instructions for an object—say a toothbrush, a shoe or even a phone—and then be able to print out that object from the comfort of your own home.
Sounds farfetched doesn’t it? It isn’t, though. In fact, it is no more unrealistic than believing a half century ago that someday we would be able to download a digital copy of a book and print it off on a laser-dot printer.
The technology I am speaking of is referred to as Rapid Prototype Design or, more commonly, 3-D printing and it works by taking computer-aided-design (CAD) data and using it to build—or print out—a device layer by layer. (In most cases, layers of liquids or powdered plastics are deposited from a printer and then sintered together into a computer-generated shape with an ultraviolet light or a laser beam).
The technology has been in existence for almost 20 years but, like early mainframe computers, because the cost of the machines often exceeded $100,000, it was reserved for only the largest corporations in the automotive and aerospace industries. Within the past 10 years prices dropped to between $10,000-$15,000 and the machines have become staples in industrial design shops where they are used to create prototype designs of new products or parts.
A Shift from Design to Manufacturing
As the price of the machines has continued to drop an interesting transition is taking place. Instead of simply being used to create one-time prototype designs, a number of users are opting to employ the machines to rapidly construct objects in lieu of relying on more traditional mass-assembly manufacturing methods.
This is especially true in instances where the number of products needed to be built is relatively small. In such cases, rapid prototype manufacturing makes economic sense because it relieves manufacturers from having to set up the expensive injection molding systems and tool-and-die operations that are so commonly used today to building plastic parts and other industrial components.
Obviously, the technology doesn’t lend itself to products that need to be manufactured in large numbers, such as common automotive parts or the components of best-selling consumer products, but the numbers and types of applications suitable for 3-D printing are increasing.
For instance, architects are now using the machines to construct 3-D models of buildings for clients before they build the real thing. In other cases, medical device companies are using them to print out devices that have very limited markets or that can be tailored to individual users. BMW and other high-end automotive manufacturers are using the machines to create individualized components, and the Defense Department is even investigating how the systems might be employed to manufacture replacement parts for equipment that is broken in the heat of battle. The advantage, of course, is that this capability will allow trucks, tanks and robots to return to battle that much sooner.
Build It and They Will Come
Alas, such opportunities are only the tip of the proverbial iceberg. The real opportunity for 3D printers is to become household staples—just as the big pay-off in computers rested in the personal computer.
To this end, 3D Systems, Stratasys, and Z Corporation have all indicated that they hope to have printers that sell for between $1,000 and $2,000 within the next few years. If true, the list of possible applications is almost endless. Timberland Company, the large shoe manufacturer, has already used rapid prototype machines to produce an individual shoe for less than $35 and in less than 90 minutes.
Another company, SolidWorks, has used the technology to start a new business called Cosmic Modelz which will allow children to create their own action figures. Thus little Billy instead of having to settle for a generic G.I. Joe can now build his own G.I. Billy.
Perhaps not surprisingly, Mattel and other toy manufacturers are very interested in the technology because it could open up new possibilities as kids learn to customize Barbie and other toys to their individual tastes.
Other possibilities include printing out toothbrushes, forks, plates and jewelry as well as replacements parts for broken appliances. In my own case, just last month the door on my GE microwave broke and I had to special order the part at a rather exorbitant cost of $180. To add insult to injury, I then had to wait two weeks for the part to arrive by mail. How much more convenient if I could have simply downloaded the instruction set for the handle and printed it out.
The greatest opportunity lies not in printing such simple and mundane household items, but in more complex objects like iPods and cellphones. To do so, however, it will first be necessary to print electronic circuits. But according to industry analysts just such a capability is on the horizon as researchers are perfecting methods of combining organic semiconductors, metallic inks and ceramic insulators.
If such a possibility sounds like something out of a Jetson’s cartoon, I’d encourage you to visit www.fabathome.org — a website run by Cornell University—which is providing the public an open-source kit that allows users to make their own rapid prototype manufacturing machines at home. As an analogy, recall that it was only 30 years ago that the first do-it-at-home computer, the Altair 8800, was advertised in Popular Electronics. It sold thousands of sets in just a few months and many historians now cite its success as the event that launched the desktop computer revolution. It is quite possible that we are at a similar point with regard to 3D printers.
Jack Uldrich is a writer, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including the forthcoming Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business, and speaks frequently on future trends, innovation, change management, nanotechnology, robotics, RFID technology and executive leadership to the manufacturing and industrial equipment industries.
