Understanding the power of exponential growth can sometimes be difficult and that is why I often rely on analogies such this one about the tooth fairy or this about the emperor of china and rice to explain its almost magical power.
Nevertheless, I also like real world examples and that’s why I want to share this article about the Department of Energy awarding a record amount of supercomputing power in the coming year—265 million processor hours to be exact. Interestingly, this is three-times the amount that was awarded just last year, and in 2009, DOE plans to quadruple the amount to over 1 billion processing hours.
But if you want to be an exponential executive and jump the curve, I’d encourage you to think of all of this supercomputing power somewhat differently. To wit, if you had to rely on your state-of-the-art duel-processor desktop computer to complete a 1-million hour project, it would take you 57 years to do so. If, on the other-hand, you were awarded a supercomputing grant from DOE you could do that same project in just 41 days. And that my friends is the difference between yeterday’s linear economy and today’s hyper-charged exponential economy—things that use to take 57 years to do or now being done in just 41 days. And, of course, by this time next year things that use to take 41 days will be done in less than 10 days.
Of course, why all of this really matters is because of what we will be learning from these supercomputing projects. For example, scientists will be sequencing more genes and learning more about how proteins fold; airline and automobile companies will be creating new aerodynamic designs; pharmaceutical firms will be designing new and more effective drugs; and researchers might very learn more about how mankind is influencing everything from the condition of our oceans to global climate change.
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.
