When I speak about the future of technology, I often use historical analogies as a way of helping my clients envision the future. Consider this example: In the 1960’s and 1970’s and even well into the 1980’s, the idea that a computer could someday defeat a person in the game of chess was considered ludicrous. Well, by 1996 not only were computers regularly winning matches against people, but in a famous match, IBM’s Deep Blue defeated Gary Kasparov, the world’s reigning chess champion.
Now, fast forward to today. Tomorrow, in the California town of Victorville, eleven robotic cars will set off in the hopes of navigating an urban environment. To win the competition and the $2 million prize, the robotic car must drive well enough to earn a California driver’s license. The idea that a robotic car might be good enough to earn a driver license might strike some people as ludicrous, but is it any more implausible than the idea of a computer defeating a person in chess might have seemed in 1960? Moreover, if computers can now always defeat chess grand masters, might it not also be possible that some day in the near future computers will always drive better than even the best NASCAR driver? If you jump the curve, I think you will gain a better perspective on the future of robotics.
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Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.
