The Wall Street Journal, yesterday, had a nice article on ”Five technologies that could change everything” for the energy industry. I’m in general agreement that the five technologies mentioned—advanced car batteries, carbon capture and storage, space-based solar power, utility storage and next-generation biofuels—all hold great promise.
Nevertheless, as a professional futurist who is also an avid student of history, it pays to be humble when handicapping the future. Specifically, I remind investors and interested parties in the energy sector to beware of “Black Swans”—low probability events (or technology breakthroughs) which, if they occur, could have a huge impact. In the energy sector, I would include such things as synthetic biology; cold fusion; solar paint; and “sustainable” carbon technologies.
If you have possibilities that should be included in my “black swan” list, I’d love to hear from you.
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