In today’s technology section of the Wall Street Journal there is a lengthy article entitled “Thinking About Tomorrow.” Normally, I’m a big fan of the WSJ, but this article is a piece of trash. Of course, I recommend that you read it for yourself but here are just a couple of my criticisms.
For beginners, it is too timid in its predictions. I understand that nobody wants to look foolish for making outlandish predictions, but all the Journal’s authors do is take existing technological trends and extrapolate outward. This is all fine and well but it is hardly useful.
To this point, the article begins in a snarky, elitest way by saying, “Let’s get this out of the way first–in the next ten years, no one will travel by jet pack or have robots maid that serve dinner.”
Oh really? I think if you watch these two videos—of jet packs and robots—it is possible to imagine that in 10 years at least someone might travel by jet pack or be served by robot by 2018. This first video comes compliments from Thunderbolt Areosystems:
This second video is of a robot in Japan serving someone tea:
I truly hope both technologies improve exponentially in the coming decade and that the Wall Street Journal becomes the latest member of the print media to have egg on its face. (In early December 1903—just two weeks before the Wright Brothers historic flight—the New York Times dismissively wrote that human flight would not be acheiveable for the next “one to ten million years.”)
I have a long list of other compliants and problems with the article, but let me just briefly mention a few more:
#1) In the “How We Shop” section, there is no mention of self-service checkout lanes enabled by advances in RFID technology.
#2) In the “How We Play Games” section, there is no mention of how advances in brain-computer interfaces or haptic techology will transform the gaming experience.
#3) In “How We Watch Movies and TV” section, there is not a mention of the possibility that your local video store might simply disappear—the victim of digitally, downloadable, on-demand movies.
#4) In the “How We Make and Keep Friends” section, there is no mention of how technology will allow us to spend more time with our friends. (Note: And this interaction will be in person and not on virtual reality sites).
#5) In the “How We Get Our News” section, there is no mention of the possibility that due to the flood of user-generated content, traditional media might actually increase in influence. (This is because people might actually come to rely more on experts to help them sift through the volumes of digital information that is available.)
I also have two other last points. First, there is no mention of the radical advances coming in health care. This is a particularly egregious oversight given that so much of the U.S. economy is driven by the health care sector. (For more on this idea, I’d recommend this past post.) Secondly, in an accompanying article entitled “Predictions of the Past,” the WSJ staff dismissed a few 1998 predictions simply because they didn’t come to pass within the allotted timeframe. (One such prediction was the idea that voice translation technology would make language training irrelevant.) As I said earlier today, I, too, don’t think that language training will go away. I do, however, believe it will transform a great many businesses in the coming decade. My point is this: Just because a prediction didn’t come true in the past doesn’t mean that it won’t come true some time in the near future.
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.
