Recently, I had some time to kill in an airport and as I am wont to do in such situations I strolled into the bookstore. It was my good fortune to stumble across the book, Get There Early: Sensing the Future to Compete in the Present by Bob Johansen of the Institute for the Future.
I highly recommend it for anyone interested in the future. Among some of the key points I took away from the book were:
1. Uncouple the art of forecasting from prediction. As I stated in this piece a few days ago the future is unknowable, but this doesn’t diminish the importance of forecasting. It does, however, suggest that all of us should take everyone’s predictions with a healthy dose of salt. As Voltaire said, “Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd.” It is good advice to heed when contemplating the future. Far too many variables are at work to predict the future with much accuracy.
2. Don’t adopt a fixed mind-set. Related to this point was the author’s warning against adopting a fixed mind-set with regard to the future. Too often, people with a particular mind-set see only things that fit their pre-conceived worldview. For example, I tend to be very optimistic about the future. (A case-in-point is this piece I wrote on human longevity.) Therefore, it is all that much more important for me to guard against fitting all future technological advances into this optimistic mind-set.
3. Think the unthinkable. Some of the strategies the author offered to protect oneself against the latter problem was to work on “thinking the unthinkable” as well as learning to “hold multiple realities in your mind at the same time.” To use my own thinking on longevity as an example, it would behoove me to actively consider reasons why people in the future might have shorter life-spans or how the future of longeveity might be asymmetrical. That is: some people might live longer, while others could have shorter life-spans. (Interestingly, we are already seeing signs of this future as life expectancy rates in the deep South are actually decreasing due to obesity, diabetes and other lifestyle-related diseases.)
4. Learn to become “comfortable with being uncomfortable.” Johansen makes a compelling argument that in the future—due to growing complexity—leaders will need to “focus less on solving problems and more on managing dilemmas” (and even “trilemmas” and “multiliemmas.”) A couple of his proposed suggestions include: “reflect more, and respond less.” All too often, people—especially leaders—have a bias toward action. That is all fine and well unless, of course, of action is wrong. Bottom-line: The future is going to be very fluid and people will need to work hard at staying flexible. His solution: ask a lot of questions; think before acting; and learn to embrace ambiguity.
All told, the book offers a wealth of other tools and concrete examples to help the reader become more effective forecasters. Again, I highly recomend it.
P.S. The inside of the book cover is worth the price of the book alone. It offers a visual map of the Institute for the Future’s latest 10-year forecast.
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Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.
