“Human beings, who are almost unique in having the ability to learn from the experiences of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.” Douglas Adams
Question: Which is the more likely scenario?
A) Roger seemed happily married. He killed his wife.
B) Roger seemed happily married. He killed his wife because he wanted her inheritance.
Many people select “B” because it sounds more plausible. But that is the wrong answer. The correct answer is “A” for the simple reason that, logically, the more broadly worded description depicted in Scenario A not only includes Scenario B but also every other possible reason why Roger might have killed his wife, including reasons of anger, jealousy, mental illness, or accident.
The relevance of this common mistake on focusing on the specific to the exclusion of the general can be found in how many people think about insurance. After 9-11, many people were more likely to buy insurance to protect against acts of terrorism even though injury or death due to terrorism is already covered under the general terms of plain insurance plans. Rental car companies also play off peoples’ inexperience when they encourage them to buy “extra” insurance. They know it is easier for people to imagine the specific experience of getting into an automobile accident in a new city with a rental car and they use this knowledge to get the customer to purchase additional – and unnecessary — insurance.
It is not sufficient, however, to merely get others to stop profiting from our inexperience; there are additional ways to profit from your own inexperience – provided you’re willing to unlearn.
In many cases, we can learn from those who have experienced something we have not. This, unfortunately, is harder to do than it might sound because people don’t like to believe they are “average” and are, therefore, likely to experience the same thing that those who have actually had experience.
In his book, Stumbling Upon Happiness, Dan Gilbert demonstrates how people who win the lottery are not happier a year after winning the lottery. Nevertheless, the overwhelming majority of lottery players are convinced that they are unique (or “not average”) and, unlike those other poor saps who won the lottery, winning will make them happy. This illusion keeps them playing (and, for the most part, losing) even though it could be avoided by applying other peoples’ real-world experiences to their hypothetical future experience.
The second way to unlearn from our experiences is to become cognizant of the fact that often our most vivid memories come from the most unlikely experiences. This causes us to believe that these unlikely experiences are more common than they actually are. For example, do you “always” get in the slowest lane at the grocery store or on the highway? The reality is that you don’t. You just don’t recall the many times your lanes moves at a normal clip.
The same effect is at work when people refuse to fly in an airplane after a bad plane crash. Airline accidents are exceedingly rare and, statistically speaking; it is far more dangerous to drive than fly. But because people can more easily and vividly recall these unlikely plane crashes, they are more likely to select a different – and far more dangerous – mode of transportation.
By reminding yourself of the totality of your – and others — experiences, however, not only can you gain a clearer picture of reality, you might even grow enough from your inexperience to extend your life.
Do the Math Until It Doesn't Add Up
Question the Wisdom of Experts
