In the book “The Sun Also Rises,” Ernest Hemingway wrote the line, “Gradually and then suddenly,” to describe how a character went bankrupt. The phrase also neatly captures how our future is poised to change because of three transformational issues: the burgeoning national debt, accelerating advances in artificial intelligence, and the looming climate crisis.
Let’s begin with the smallest issue first. Thirty years ago, the national debt stood at $4 trillion. Today, it is $37 trillion and it is projected to grow to $41 trillion within a few years. Many commentators have been issuing dire predictions for years but they have not yet come to fruition. It is possible that America will be able to continue this “business as usual” course for some time, but it is equally plausible that the House of Cards is about to topple.
Interest payments now represent the largest expenditure in the budget–more than even the military budget. Soon, the payments will exceed the amount spent on Social Security and Medicare. The problem is this: The financial markets can ignore the problem until, suddenly, they can’t.
As debt continues to balloon, interest rates will need to increase in order to entice investors to purchase the country’s growing debt. This will crowd out other investments and depress economic growth. In turn, tax revenues will drop and the debt will grow even faster. Suddenly, the debt will metastasize into a crisis of epic proportions as a vicious cycle of rising interest rates and payment, plummeting tax revenues, and less government spending takes hold.
The coming changes with regard to the accelerating advances in artificial intelligence are more difficult to predict but they, too, are on the horizon. The New York Times recently had an article explaining how technologists and futurists (such as myself) have been wrong regarding AI’s impact on certain jobs. Five years ago, it was commonly forecasted that the radiologists would soon be overtaken by AI but, as the article pointed out, the Mayo Clinic has hired 55 percent more radiologists since 2020.
Alas, what the piece failed to mention is that AI is expected to double in capability every 6 months. The sneaky thing about exponential change is that change appears almost linear in the beginning but suddenly the curve shoots skyward. If one plots out AI’s expected advance over just a five year period, it will grow 1000 times more powerful. As the late astronomer Carl Sagan once said that “the absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.” In other words, just because radiologists (and other jobs) have avoided displacement to date, it does not necessarily follow that they will avoid disruption in the long run.
Lastly, there is climate change. Mother Nature is a delicate and yet complex organism. Nobody–not even today’s smartest scientists–understands precisely how it all works. Complex ecosystems consisting of bacteria, fungi, insects, birds, trees, rivers, animals, and humans all support and sustain one another in an intricate, interconnected ecosystem. The disappearance of even a single organism can, however, have a cascading and devastating effect on the whole.
The same is true of the relationship between the ocean’s circulating currents and regional weather patterns. A slight change in temperature or salinity level of the ocean can trigger large-scale changes. To understand, consider water. It can either be warmed on a gradual level with little impact until the temperature crosses a specific threshold and, quite suddenly, liquid water turns to steam at 212 degrees Fahrenheit. Such changes are known as phase changes, and it is what may occur with the climate–things will be fine until, suddenly, they are not.
So, in the face of all this potential change, what is a person to do? The answer is as simple as it is profound: Change yourself. The national debt is real and will demand sacrifices from everyone; advances in AI will require each of us to foster and develop those skills which are uniquely human such as empathy, compassion and love; and climate change will necessitate major behavioral change.
Wondering where to start? My advice: Start gradually. Something tells me that big positive change can also happen quite suddenly.
Jack Uldrich is a professional futurist and the author of 13 books.
