Thought Leadership: I encourage you to watch or listen to this 1-hour podcast conversation between Ezra Kelin and Benjamin Buchanan, the former top White House advisor on artificial intelligence. My main takeaway was this: Artificial general intelligence may be only 2 or 3 years away from “landing” on humanity. Folks, this is a BIG, BIG DEAL. The problem, as I see it, is that there is very little new thinking about what the world of the near future will either look like or, more importantly, what it could become.
Why is there so little new thinking? This is a question I’ve been pondering deeply and I don’t claim to know the full reason but part of the answer could be that human intelligence can sometimes be a trap. What I mean is that, often people are so smart they can make plausible and even rational-sounding arguments for why things aren’t going to change. Now, I’ll be the first to admit that these highly intelligent people may be right but they may also be wrong. The reason why they may be wrong is simple: All of their insights are based on past knowledge and experiences. My point is this: Highly intelligent people have a difficult time making imaginary leaps into worlds that don’t yet exist. Yet, this is precisely what is required at this time.
Think in Questions: In a world that is changing as fast as ours, everyone should be able to quickly answer this question: When was the last time you changed your mind? If you are having a difficult time answering the question, you could be in trouble. Frequently, people who think they already possess all the answers aren’t asking the right questions. One good question that can help keep your mind open is: What don’t I know? Another is: What evidence would I need to see or receive in order to change my mind?
Think the Unthinkable: Civilizations change. Civilizations also collapse. Is it possible our civilization could change and even collapse? The answer is YES, and it is imperative we acknowledge and think deeply about this possibility. The reason we must think about societal-wide change is not to depress ourselves but to wake up to the reality that if we wish to survive we must change our behavior. To this end, the possibility that the middle part of America could become a desert is a real possibility. The Ogallala Aquifer is a massive body of water that sits under vast parts of South Dakota, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas. Unless farmers and agribusinesses make changes NOW to how much water they are withdrawing from the aquifer, it could be completely dry in parts of Oklahoma and Texas within 15 to 20 years. Even more troublesome, the entire aquifer could be depleted within 50 to 100 years. If you don’t think this could happen let me remind you, the Fertile Crescent (the birthplace of human civilization) is now unfarmable. Northern Africa was once lush, green farmland; today, it is a desert. More recently, as little as five decades ago, the Aral Sea was the fourth largest body of freshwater in the world; today, it is a pathetic fraction of its former self. We must think about unthinkable things so that we can WAKE UP and CHANGE our behavior now–while we still have time. For those interested, this is a good article on the Ogallala Aquifer.
Think Harder: Earlier this week, I came across an article that suggested humanity needed to free itself from “dead thinking.” The article didn’t elaborate on what exactly “dead thinking” was, but, after reading this article on microplastics in the rainwater, I fear society’s thinking concerning plastics might be categorized as “dead.” The threat of microplastics is real and growing and we desperately need new, fresh thinking to address the problem. Until we get it, I encourage everyone to get serious about reducing their usage of plastic. Also, for those of you with even modest financial means, I encourage you to sign up for Ridwell. The company does an excellent job of recycling almost 100 percent of the plastic it receives. (This compares to the dismal 10 percent of plastics your local recycling facility recycles.)
Think Fast: D-Wave, a quantum computer company, has successfully simulated the properties of magnetic materials. What makes this an impressive achievement is that it would have taken a classic supercomputer 1 million years to solve this real-world problem. D-Wave did it in 20 minutes! The field of material science is about to be revolutionized and there is no shortage of potential applications – next-generation pacemakers, batteries and smartphones are just a few areas that will soon be transformed.
Thoughts from Beyond: I have suggested before that the future will be spiritual. How have I arrived at such a conclusion? It is a fair question and I will attempt to provide a short answer. As a futurist, one of the methods I use to discern the future is to constantly remind myself of what I don’t know and what I am not seeing. In turn, I apply this same methodology to the world around me. In the case of artificial intelligence, I remind myself that AI’s “perception” is limited because it lacks other ways of “knowing.” Therefore, if AI’s perception is limited, even flawless logic on its behalf will yield an imperfect answer. As AI takes over ever more cognitive functions–i.e. functions of the human mind–it will require humans to focus more on those ways of knowing which make us uniquely human. And what makes us uniquely human? It is our physical bodies, the human heart, and our souls. In short, the future will be more spiritual because Spirit is what makes us innately human. (This is something that the world’s most powerful quantum computers and artificial intelligence will not ever possess.)
Afterthought: “As much as change is about adapting to the new, it is about detaching from the old.”–Ronald Burt
