Thought Leadership: In the coming age of AI, what might be one of humanity’s last remaining superpowers? In light of the news I shared last week suggesting that AI is about to become 1000-fold more powerful within 6 years, now is a good time to begin thinking about this question. One of my answers to this question is: Imagination. The truth is this: More futures can happen than will happen. This is to say that your particular future could unfold in a multitude of different ways but, ultimately, only one path will prevail. Still, in tomorrow’s rapidly accelerating world, there will be a vast and growing array of technological tools at our disposal for creating our desired future. This world will be filled with great challenges, but it will also be ripe with an almost unimaginable number of opportunities. It is humanity’s responsibility to use the power of thought to imagine the best possible alternatives. If we delegate this power to either machines or others, it will be they–and not us–who create the world of tomorrow.
Think Fast: BYD, the Chinese Electric Vehicle manufacturer, has unveiled a new technology that can charge a car battery in 5 minutes. While this isn’t yet fast enough to rival the fueling systems of a traditional automobile, it is getting closer. As wait times at public chargers are reduced and longer distance road trips will become easier, it is quite possible that EV’s will continue to grow in popularity.
Rethink: After raising over $1 billion in venture capital funds, Jeff Bezos vertical farming company, Plenty, has filed for bankruptcy. The company joins a handful of other notable vertical start-up companies that have similarly filed for bankruptcy, including Aerofarms, Bowery Farms, and AppHarvest. This news serves as a reminder that the future does not always play out the way many futurists (myself included) think it will play out. Five years ago, I was bullish on vertical farms because I was overly confident technological advances would significantly lower the price of growing many specialty crops to the point where they were economically and nutritionally superior to traditional food items such as lettuce, strawberries, and avocados. I was wrong. Now, this does not imply that vertical farming will never be competitive with traditional farming techniques, but it does mean that I must better understand what hurdles and which barriers–such as reducing energy consumption–must be overcome before true competitiveness is achieved.
Think Again: Why might handing over total control to AI agents be a huge mistake? The short answer is that the very feature which is being pitched as its main selling point–reduced human oversight–is the primary vulnerability. Imagine, for example, an AI agent that has been tasked to solve a particular problem. It does not take much of a leap to think the bot might manipulate a file, impersonate a user, or make an authorized transaction in pursuit of its goal. My prediction is that in the near future a human will be pleading before a jury, “It wasn’t me, it was my AI agent!”
Think Different: A few years ago, I read Michael Pollan’s book, “How to Change Your Mind: What the New Science of Psychedelics Teaches Us About Consciousness, Dying, Addiction, Depression and Transcendence.” The book did, in fact, change my mind about how I thought about psychedelics. Recently, the state of Colorado has started a wide-scale experiment with psychedelics. If the program is responsibly implemented–meaning that people who are given psychedelics are done so only under the guidance of a professionally trained guide–it could represent a major shift in how we treat some diseases, including depression, PTSD, and addiction.
Think the Unthinkable: Cybersecurity experts estimate that there is a one-in-three chance that advances in quantum computing will cause a major threat to the global economy by 2035. The problem stems from the fact that quantum computers will likely be able to break all of the encryption techniques upon which our economy depends. (Imagine, for example, that every banking and investment account in the world could be easily hacked.) I don’t claim to know how all of this will play out, but it reinforces my belief that “resilience” must become a top priority of virtually every CEO, leader and company. Strangely, what I fear this means is that our backup systems will have to more closely resemble pre-computer and pre-Internet era systems.
Thoughts from Beyond: Earlier this week, I read this story about how “spare” human bodies could revolutionize medicine. Beyond the obvious moral and ethical issues surrounding such a technological feat, I am growing more convinced that the biggest issue which humanity must grapple with is this: What does it mean to be human? In a world where artificial intelligence might soon be able to do most people’s jobs and where advances in gene editing could allow us to grow our own replacement parts, it is only natural to ask ourselves questions such as “Why am I here?” and “What am I to do with my life?” As more people are driven by accelerating technological change to delve into the depths of these profound and meaningful questions, many will turn to matters of science, faith and spirituality in search of answers. But where things will get really interesting is when a growing number of people begin taking to heart the idea that our truest essence isn’t physical in nature but rather spiritual. In other words, what if an ever-growing number of people accept that Pierre Teilhard de Chardin was factually correct in his understanding of reality when he said, “We are spiritual beings having a human experience.” (Please see the below “Afterthought” for a related insight from one of the world’s greatest scientists.) Whether or not you personally accept this definition of “reality,” I hope you can agree that it will shift how those of us who do embrace this “reality” think, function and act in this world. And that, in and of itself, will be a powerful force to be reckoned with in the future.
Afterthought: “The day science begins to study non-physical phenomena, it will make more progress in one decade than in all the previous centuries of its existence.” Nikola Tesla
