In my forthcoming book, Jump the Curve, I dedicate an entire chapter to the topic of “unlearning.” It is my contention that the pace of technological change is occuring so fast that not only it is essential people learn new skills, they must also dedicate an equal amount of time to unlearning old skills and old ways of seeing the world.
To this end, Hitachi is reporting today that it expects to quadruple the data storage capabilities of desktop computers to 4 terabytes by 2011. For those of you counting at home, this means that you’ll be able to store roughly 1 million books, 250 hours of high definition video or 250,000 songs on your iPod by the time the next president is finishing his or her first term in office.
I would encourage readers, however, not to simply think of data storage in terms of what it can do to today’s existing technology. The more serious implications will play out in terms of how it impacts media, the arts and education. The Freakonomics Blog has a great post on this topic today. In essense, it details the experience of a researcher who tried to explain in an article back in 1993 how digital storage technology would disrupt the music industry in the not-too-distant future. Interestingly, the Harvard Business Review rejected his article because they thought it was “nonsense.” As history has demonstrated, of course, it was not nonsense and the only people who looked foolish are the editors at HBR because they couldn’t ”jump the curve” and envision a different future.
These editors are not alone. They join a very diverse group, including Lord Kelvin who famously predicted in 1899 that “heavier than air flying machines are immpossible,” as well as the legions of medical professionals who laughed Barry Marshall off the stage in 1984 for having the audacity to suggest that ulcers were caused by bacteria. They did this because they “knew” ulcers were caused by stress and eating too much spicy food. (Marshall had the last laugh. He won the Nobel Prize in Medicine in 2005 for his breakthrough discovery.)
My point is that when thinking about the future it is vital to keep a very open mind. It is also helpful to be a little humble because, if you’re not, you can end up looking pretty foolish. For other examples of individuals incapable of thinking exponentially, I’d encourage you to read this recent post.
Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future trends, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and associations.
