See What Isn’t There

"You don’t understand something until you understand it more than one way.”  – Marvin Minsky

Question: Does a rusted nail weight more or less than the original, non-rusted nail?   

It weights more. This finding, discovered by Antoine and Marie Lavoisier in the late 18^th century, was a rather startling because it drew attention to the unobservable notion that a rusting object was drawing the attraction of an element which people could not see. In the above case, an iron nail is attracting oxygen molecules and converting the metal into an iron oxide.

This idea of not seeing what is there is an important element of unlearning. Consider the case of Abraham Wald. During World War Two, he and a team of researchers were charged with protecting Allied bombers from German guns. As part of their work the researchers diligently recorded where on the body of the plane each returning bomber was struck by gunfire. The most common areas were the wings and the tails.

In response, the researchers advised the military command to reinforce those bullet-struck areas. Everyone, that is, except Wald who suggested that those areas of the plane not struck by gunfire – largely the fuselage – be reinforced. His recommendation was initially met with incredulity by his peers and superiors.

Eventually, Wald convinced them of the wisdom of his logic. The mistake his peers made was that they were only observing those planes which safely returned. What they were not seeing were those planes that didn’t return. Wald reasoned correctly that if a plane could safely return with bullet-ridden wings and tailfins then those areas didn’t need reinforcement and, counter-intuitively, the parts of the plane without bullet holes were the areas requiring additional armor.

Similar situations occur every day. Millions of people play the lottery because they see the pictures of smiling winners holding humongous checks in the newspaper or on TV. What they don’t see are the millions who consistently lose $1, $5 or more.

Academic and corporate research often fails prey to a similar prejudice. For example, in the wake of the horrific 1999 Columbine High School massacre in which 12 students were gunned down, scores of academic researchers received grants to study aggression. Their conclusion was that aggression lead to bad behavior and that bad behavior was uniformly associated with negative consequences.

One problem was that the vast majority of these researchers were only looking for negative consequences. Subsequent researchers have now discovered that aggression can also have positive consequences. Many people – but especially teenagers – perceive aggression as a “cool” trait and reward those who exhibit it with popularity. (Interestingly, according to recent research, popular kids are more likely to abuse alcohol and drugs and, therefore, have a different set of problems than the “quiet, loner-type.”

Homework Assignment: When parents don’t allow their children to walk home from school or down to a friend’s house and, instead, drive them because they are concerned that their child could be kidnapped or otherwise harmed by a stranger; what aren’t the parents seeing?

Extra credit: Take a look at this logo of the Big Ten Conference. Do you see anything else? (Hint: The Big Ten Conference consists of 11 universities.)

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