(Editor’s Note: Tomorrow, I will be giving the keynote presentation at the Atlanta Regional Commission’s First Annual Technology Conference. Below is an article I wrote for the region’s leading newspaper, The Atlanta Constitution.)
Fifty years ago, in 1959, the Atlanta region surpassed the 1 million population mark. In an act of notable foresight, the following year, the Metropolitan Regional Planning Commission—the predecessor to today’s Atlanta Regional Commission (ARC)—published a report entitled “What You Should Know About Rapid Transit.” It set the stage for the development of MARTA.
Fast forward to today and ARC is now engaged in Fifty Forward, an equally farsighted strategic planning venture designed to envision what the future holds for the region over the next half century. While such exercises are always fraught with danger, two large trends—demography and technology—are well established and should be used to frame the process.
Ironically, the two trends share a common theme: both are experiencing extraordinary growth. Whereas, it took the region 50 years to add 3 million citizens, it will take less than two decades to add the next 3 million—and grow the region from today’s population base of 4 million to 7 million.
As fast as this growth has been, it pales in comparison to the exponential growth of a number of technologies. Consider, for example, that data storage, Internet bandwidth, and gene sequencing technology are doubling incapacity every six months. Brain scanning technology and the number of robots deployed in homes and businesses is doubling approximately every 12 months; while computers continue to double in processing power every 18-24 months—a trend expected to progress unabated for the next 10 to 15 years.
It is impossible to predict precisely how all of these technologies will unfold but it is worth keeping this nugget in mind: anything that doubles just ten times—as all of the aforementioned technologies are expected to do—experiences a 1000-fold increase.
Let us now return to the first trend: demographics. It is not hard to imagine how an additional three million people might put an inordinate amount of strain on everything from the environment and education to the area’s transportation and public health systems.
Alas within each challenge lies an immense opportunity to position the Atlanta region for extraordinary growth. One direct implication of continued advances in biotechnology, nanotechnology and regenerative medicine is that the region’s already rapidly aging population will grow more disproportionately older.
One opportunity that can emerge from this seemingly serious situation is the development of new robotic technologies to help senior citizens lead more independent lives. Innovative researchers at Georgia Tech are doing exactly this and their technology may not only alleviate potential nursing shortages, it could also lead to new companies which can help grow and expand the region’s economic base.
As the population skyrockets it is also easy to envision how traffic, water and pollution problems will all just grow worse. With farsighted leadership, none of this need be true. In fact, each problem can again be turned into an opportunity.
As a result of continued advances in GPS, sensors, advanced algorithms, and social networking tools, people and vehicles will soon be able to communicate with one another in order to make better use of today’s roads and transportation system. In other words rather than focus on building more roads, the region should embrace technology to make smarter use of its existing systems and modes of transportation.
In a related vein, as a result of promising nanotechnology research being conducted at institutions and companies throughout the region, it may soon be possible to inexpensively desalinate ocean water using massive solar farms as well as reclaim, recycle and reuse polluted water and air. With regard to the latter, area researchers are, in fact, actively exploring how they might capture the carbon dioxide emissions directly from automobiles and recycle it—thus making oil a sustainable energy source.
Such visions may be hard to believe but recall that just 50 years ago IBM was selling a 5 megabit storage device, which was about the size of a large filing cabinet, for $2.5 million. Today, you can purchase a thumb-sized memory stick with a million times more capacity for about $19.95, and then send that file wirelessly to a colleague on the other side of the world in a blink of an eye.
The future has a funny way of arriving sooner than expected. The key to ensuring the region’s continued prosperity resides in citizens and scientists; researchers and retirees; and public, private and non-profit leaders getting engaged in ARC’s Fifty Forward Project. Why? Because, at the end of the day, as the region’s forefathers proved a half century, the best way to predict the future is to create it yourself.
Related Post
