Last week, Amazon unveiled its new electronic book—Kindle. At first glance, it appears to be a substantial improvement over past electronic books in the sense that it is easier read, lighter and can hold up to 200 books in its memory. Like other electronic books it probably won’t do well commercially—at least in the beginning—because it is expensive ($400) and because most people don’t like change.
Nevertheless, I believe that Kindle and its next iterations have the potential to do very well because it is important to understand that Kindle is only going to get better, faster and cheaper.
As I said, at the present time, Kindle costs $400; can store 200 books; only has a black-and-white screen; and its battery lasts 8 hours. Due to a variety of technological advances, the price will drop, memory storage will increase dramatically, the screen will someday be capable of color (and showing videos) and the battery will last a full week. As a result of advances in flexible electronics, it will also be lighter and so flexible that it can be rolled-up or even folded into one’s pocket.
Moreover, as more and more people—especially young people—grow up reading material on their PC’s, iPhone’s and other electronic devices, their resistance to reading books on an electronic screen will dissipate. This is especially true because the books will be more affordable than paper books and readers will be able to link to the Internet to access additional information about whatever they are reading. For instance, if they don’t know a word they can look it up right there because Kindle has an embedded dictionary.
Another factor working in Kindle’s favor is the fact that knowledge itself is said to be doubling every seven years. What this means is textbooks are in an almost constant need of being updated and revised. This is a costly proposition for most school districts. With Kindle, however, these books can simply be updated and wirelessly transmitted to the pupil’s elctronic book.
All of these factors will lead to believe that teachers, students and the general public will, over time, “unlearn” their reliance on pulp-based books and begin to see the many advantages of electronic books.
For a more in-depth look at Kindle, I would encourage you to watch this video:
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Jack Uldrich is a writer, futurist, public speaker and host of jumpthecurve.net. He is the author of seven books, including Jump the Curve and The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Your Business. He is also a frequent speaker on future technology and future trends, nanotechnology, innovation, change management and executive leadership to a variety of businesses, industries and non-profit organizations and trade associations.
