Last year, I gave a keynote presentation on “Future Trends” to the Recreational Vehicle Industry Association. Since many of these trends are directly applicable to the automobile industry—which, as you known, is undergoing a bit of turmoil these days—I thought I would draw up a list of ten trends I see influencing the automobile industry over the next five to ten years.
Trend #1: Smart Materials
It has been said that a picture is worth a thousand words. I agree and so if you want to see the future of “smart materials,” I’d strongly encourage you to watch this short video about General Motor’s work in the field. (I know, I know … GM is now in bankrupcy but that doesn’t minimize its work in this exciting field.)
Within the next few years a number of cars will possess body parts—such as air dams and handles—made out of shape memory alloys. Self-cleaning glass and scratch-resistant panels will also become the norm. Slightly longer term, self-healing rubber — such as BASF is developing—will be incorporated into cars.
Trend #2: Nanotechnology
To a large degree it is advances in nanotechnology which are enabling many of the aforementioned products, but nanotechnology will also lead to the creation of new and more effective catalysts which will reduce the amount of platinum and palladium automobile manufacturers use. Nanoparticles will also be used to improve fuel efficiency. In fact, Oxonica is already testing its nanoparticles on buses in England (where they have demonstrated a 4.3% in fuel efficiency), and new nanocoatings such as Ecology Coatings is developing will reduce both the amount of material and energy OEMs use to coat existing auto parts.
Trend #3: Better Batteries
Again, thanks to advances in nanotechnology (this time in the form of new nanomaterials and silicon nanowires), a number of manufacturers are producing extraordinary leaps in battery technology. Companies such as EEStor, A123 Systems and Altair Nanotechnologies should all be closely monitored because they could soon be building batteries capable of powering a car for 300 to 400 miles. (As an added benefit, they might need only a few minutes to recharge.)
Trend #4: Web 2.0
The term “Web 2.0” is trendy to be sure but it is impacting the automobile industry today. Companies like BMW are already using wikis and exploiting the open-source movement in order to reach out to the “wisdom of crowds” and speed up product innovation. (For more information, visit BMW’s Virtual Innovation Center.)
Beyond that, however, new sites such as Dash Express and IntelliOne are using electronic information to improve the driving experience. This is not going to change. In fact, it will only become more pronounced in the near future as more and more information streams onto the Internet.
Trend #5: Flexible Electronics
Soon information and directions will be embedded directly into windshields. The picture to the right says it all.
Trend #6: Robotics
I have written extensively on this topic. (For more information just click here, here or here.) But this past January, the CEO of GM, Rick Wagoner, said that “self-driving cars” are possible within a decade. If one tracks the near exponential advances in robotics, sensors, and GPS technology and then considers the success achieved at this past year’s DARPA “Urban Challenge,” this seems to be a reasonable timeframe.
More near-term, however, robotics will continue to take over some basic functions—such as parking in tight spaces. But instead of self-parking being a service that is offered only on luxury cars, it’ll soon become a standard feature on every car.
Trend #7: Biofuels and Synthetic Biology
Personally, I’m not a fan of ethanol. However, advances in the field of cellulosic ethanol and, slightly longer-term, synthetic biology; will fundamentally alter the energy equation. I still believe battery technology offers a more practical alternative to fossil fuel but, in combination with new advanced biofuels, the car of the future will be very eco-friendly.
Trend #8: Biology
That’s right biology. Many next-generation automotive designs will likely draw their inspiration straight from biology. Daimler has already studied the Boxfish to create a more aerodynamic car and I believe other engineers will continue to find even more inspiration from the natural world around us.
Trend #9: Neurotechnology
Scientists and researchers at Toyota are already studying drivers brain patterns to help keep them alert. For example, if an elderly driver is getting too distracted it will soon be possible for “smart computers” to sense this and begin shutting down superfluous features. The advantage is that driver’s reaction time will improve. (Long-term, robotics should completely take-over some driving activities. See Trend # 6)
Trend #10: Others
I know this is cheating, but since I wanted to keep the list to ten I am simply going to point out that computers, software, RFID, rapid prototype manufacturing and speech and voice recognition technology are all going to continue to improve and will impact how the car of the future is designed and operated.
For example, engineers will continue to have access to increasingly powerful supercomputers from which they will be able to create new designs. New advanced algorithms will then take these designs and further refine them into working parts, and many of the new parts will then be built to exacting tolerances due to advances in rapid prototype manufacturing. And, of course, the driver will be sure those parts are working as result of continued advances in RFID technology.
All told, these trends suggest that not only will your next car not resemble your “father’s Oldsmobile,” it won’t even look or operate much like today’s advanced self-parking, GPS-laden, hybrid SUVs.
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