Think Hard: In my 2003 book, The Next Big Thing is Really Small: How Nanotechnology Will Change the Future of Business, I wrote about the possibility that man-made diamonds would eventually replace natural diamonds. Well, this future has nearly arrived. According to this article, fifty percent of all diamonds purchased are now synthetic, lab-grown diamonds. What I did not expect–or predict–is that these diamonds would be priced at the same price point as natural diamonds. (In fact, the price of man-made diamonds is rising.) I share this not only as a lesson in humility but as a reminder that other factors such as a lack of competition, marketing, and the motivation for profit also play important roles in determining how the future unfolds.
Think Harder: Diamonds may not have gotten cheaper as I expected, but the price of sequencing the human genome has. In fact, the price has dropped to $400 and this is likely to have profound implications for the healthcare industry. One trend I think you’ll be hearing more and more about in the future is “life optimization.” This is the idea that people will be using their genetic data to determine how they can best optimize their health and longevity.
Think Different: If you work in the airline, travel or hospitality industries, I encourage you to read and think about the implications implicit in this article: Frequent Flyer Levies. What caught my attention was this tidbit: “less than 10% of the world population have ever set foot on an aircraft.” This is important because the airline industry is estimated to be responsible for two percent of the world’s CO2 emissions and, in the near future, it is plausible that frequent fliers–such as myself–will be asked to bear a much higher cost for the privilege of traveling by flight. (On a semi-related note: Some people believe the concept of “flight shaming” is dead. Personally, I am not so confident and believe the idea could soon re-capture the public’s imagination as an effective way to combat growing concerns over climate change.)
Think Small: A few weeks ago, I shared an article about how Microsoft was investing billions of dollars to re-open the Three Mile Nuclear Reactor. At the time, I expressed the idea that artificial intelligence’s growing demand for energy was generating a resurgence of interest in nuclear power. The news this week that Amazon is now investing $500 million to develop small nuclear modular reactors is another sign that interest in nuclear power is a real and growing trend.
Think Taller: A majority of the world’s population currently lives in large urban population centers. Most demographers and urban planners expect these numbers to increase. What is likely to grow alongside these higher populations are higher skyscrapers. In Saudi Arabia, the world’s first 1 kilometer high building is already under construction. To put this in some perspective, the building will be 167-stories tall.
Think Visually: The number of satellites Starlink is launching is astounding. The question everyone must be asking themselves right now is this: How will these satellites change my industry, my business and my customers’ expectations?
Afterthought: “Cultural change is incremental, but it begins with a leap, not a focus group.” – Seth Godin
