My Fellow Futurists:
I am writing to all of you in the spirit of open, honest inquiry. I am deeply concerned about our collective future and feel that we, as professional futurists, thinkers, imagineers, and creators of the future, have a moral obligation and responsibility to use our respective voices and platforms on behalf of the betterment of humanity.
Let me begin by acknowledging that I am aware all of you are already doing this, and I sincerely appreciate your efforts. I also respect that we all have a wide and varied range of thoughts, insights and approaches with regard to how we approach, understand and discern the future. I, however, believe we must do even more.
Each of us possesses a rich and varied collection of filters through which we see, think, process and understand the world of tomorrow. As I stated in a recent newsletter to my clients, I have never been more concerned for our collective future.
I say this for three reasons. First, as an American (and I realize many of you are from different countries), we must find the courage to call “a spade, a spade.” The breadth and scope of the Trump Administration’s actions on multiple fronts have created even more volatility, uncertainty and chaos into a world where “VUCA” (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity) was already a reality.
I raised my voice and my concerns before the election about what Donald Trump might negatively imply for the future. His willingness to lie–which has always been a problem–is growing ever more egregious. His recent statements about Ukraine being the aggressor against Russia are an out-and-out lie and we must have the courage to say so. And his latest press conference with President Zelensky is beyond the pale.
Regardless of whether you despise or admire Trump, no one can thoughtfully forecast the future if the truth and facts can be disregarded for political gain. The rise of authoritarianism in the United States and countless other countries around the world is an all-too–real and sobering trend. We cannot shy away from presenting our clients and customers with realistic scenarios of what the death of democracy might portend for the future of the world.
Second, I remain concerned about the rapid acceleration of artificial intelligence. I can accept that well-intentioned futurists may come to different opinions than me regarding how precisely we should regulate artificial intelligence but silence on this matter strikes me as professional malfeasance. (Here is my rationale for stricter regulation on AI.)
Almost every AI expert now says some version of this: “There is a non-zero chance of existential risk.” This vague, mealy-mouthed language masks this reality: A “non-zero” change means that there is a chance! From my perspective, it does NOT matter how small or remote this “chance” is, we must take it seriously. In other words, we cannot simply concern ourselves with the probability of a catastrophic failure, we must concern ourselves with the potential consequences of such a failure. If we get AI wrong, the future of humanity shifts. (The same can be said of gene editing and quantum computing and, of course, global climate change.)
My third idea is more controversial and it regards the subject of faith. I will again accept and acknowledge that thoughtful people can and will come to conclusions different than my own on this subject; but, personally, I don’t think we can understand the future unless we acknowledge that many people–for good and for bad–are acting from very different faith-based perspectives. (This is an extreme example but just think about how different the perspective of the future is for someone who sincerely believes the rapture may soon be upon us, and a different person who, just as sincerely, believes in reincarnation. Everything from the timeframe of how they make decisions (i.e. shorter-term vs long-term) to how they treat Mother Earth and its resources will be decidedly different.
I think of it this way: The world is presently engaged in a “battle of imaginations.” Many people and leaders imagine a dark, depressing and dystopian future; and, of course, the future could unfold in this manner. The world of tomorrow can also unfold into a better, brighter and more beautiful future. It is incumbent upon us, as futurists, to share the possibility of the pessimistic path, while seeking to steer our clients, customers, followers and audiences in the direction of the more optimistic path. (In my case, I have openly begun discussing the importance of thinking about matters of spirituality with my clients.)
In genuine humility, I welcome your thoughts, comments, suggestions, and disagreements. Silence on our collective future is no longer an option and we futurists must step up and meet the moment. Our clients and the world deserve no less than our best and deepest thoughts and actions.
Sincerely,
Your Fellow Futurist
